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Serie A · Regular Season - 30 · Italy

Fiorentina v Atalanta

1-0Full time· Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze· Referee: D. Doveri

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Fiorentina v Atalanta: the model read

Fiorentina meet Atalanta in the Serie A regular season - 30 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze. The model makes Fiorentina the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% FIO, 30% draw, 31% ATA.

The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Fiorentina, 60% against 48%. Attacking output favors Fiorentina on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 60%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans Fiorentina at 56%; double chance reads Fiorentina or draw 69%, Atalanta or draw 61%.

Fiorentina arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 14 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ QPR, W 1-0 v Gubbio, W 8-1 v Fiorentina U20, D 1-1 v Atalanta.

Atalanta are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Fiorentina, L 0-1 v Bologna, W 3-2 @ AC Milan, D 0-0 v Genoa.

The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Fiorentina

WDWWL9-6-5

Scored 1.50 · Conceded 1.25 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 50%

  • LAQPR2-3
  • WHGubbio1-0
  • WHFiorentina U208-1
  • DHAtalanta1-1
  • WAJuventus2-0

Atalanta

LDWLD6-7-7

Scored 1.40 · Conceded 1.55 · Clean sheets 20% · BTTS 65%

  • DAFiorentina1-1
  • LHBologna0-1
  • WAAC Milan3-2
  • DHGenoa0-0
  • LACagliari2-3

Head-to-head

10 meetings

FiorentinarecordAtalanta
4
4
2 draws

Goals

13-16

for each

Avg goals

2.9

per game

BTTS

60%

both scored

Over 2.5

40%

3+ goals

Fiorentina

Recent
DLWLWL
Wins 4Goals 13-16

Biggest win 1-0

Atalanta

Recent
DWLWLW
Wins 4Goals 16-13

Biggest win 4-1

  • Fiorentina1-1Atalanta
  • Atalanta2-0Fiorentina
  • Fiorentina1-0Atalanta
  • Atalanta3-2Fiorentina
  • Atalanta2-3Fiorentina
  • Atalanta4-1Fiorentina
  • Fiorentina1-0Atalanta
  • Fiorentina3-2Atalanta
  • Fiorentina1-1Atalanta
  • Atalanta1-0Fiorentina

Managers

C. Prandelli

Head coach

In charge since 2020 · 3 clubs managed

  • Genoa2018–2019
  • Valencia2016–2016

I. Juric

Croatia · 50

In charge since 2025 · 11 clubs managed

  • Southampton2024–2025
  • Roma2024–2024
  • Torino2021–2024
  • Verona2019–2021

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.