Copa America · Quarter-finals · World

Uruguay v Brazil

0-0Full timeJul 6, 2024, 9:00 PM ET· Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada· Referee: D. Herrera

Match analysisPre-match brief

Uruguay v Brazil: the model read

Uruguay meet Brazil in the Copa America quarter-finals at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada.

Brazil rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1615 to 1477. Recent form leans Brazil, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Brazil on expected goals, 2.0 to 0.8 per match.

Uruguay arrive patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Spain, D 2-2 v Cape Verde Islands, D 1-1 @ Saudi Arabia, D 0-0 @ Algeria.

Brazil are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Norway, W 2-1 v Japan, W 3-0 @ Scotland, W 3-0 v Haiti.

Brazil hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Brazil 1-1 Uruguay.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

Your call

Predict the result and score. The crowd split feeds the Lemeister human-network signal.

Be the first to call this one.

Pro

The model forecast is a Pro feature.

Live scores, stats and commentary are always free. The glass-box model — probabilities, the edge against the market and the full match dossier — unlocks on Pro.

See plans

Uruguay

DDDDL5-10-5

Scored 0.85 · Conceded 0.90 · Clean sheets 45% · BTTS 35%

LHSpain0-1
DHCape Verde Islands2-2
DASaudi Arabia1-1
DAAlgeria0-0
DAEngland1-1

Brazil

DWWWL11-4-5

Scored 2.00 · Conceded 1.05 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 60%

LHNorway1-2
WHJapan2-1
WAScotland3-0
WHHaiti3-0
DHMorocco1-1

Head-to-head

9 meetings

UruguayrecordBrazil

3 draws

Goals

8-16

for each

Avg goals

2.7

per game

BTTS

56%

both scored

Over 2.5

44%

3+ goals

Uruguay

Recent

DDWLLL

Wins 1Goals 8-16

Biggest win 2-0

Brazil

Recent

DDLWWW

Wins 5Goals 16-8

Biggest win 4-1

Brazil1-1Uruguay
World Cup - Qualification South AmericaArena Fonte Nova
11/19/24, 7:45 PM ET
Uruguay0-0Brazil
Copa AmericaAllegiant Stadium
7/6/24, 9:00 PM ET
Uruguay2-0Brazil
World Cup - Qualification South AmericaEstadio Centenario
10/17/23, 8:00 PM ET
Brazil4-1Uruguay
World Cup - Qualification South AmericaArena da Amazônia
10/14/21, 8:30 PM ET
Uruguay0-2Brazil
World Cup - Qualification South AmericaEstadio Centenario
11/17/20, 6:00 PM ET
Brazil1-0Uruguay
FriendliesEmirates Stadium
11/16/18, 3:00 PM ET
Uruguay1-4Brazil
World Cup - Qualification South AmericaEstadio Centenario
3/23/17, 7:00 PM ET
Brazil2-2Uruguay
World Cup - Qualification South AmericaArena De Pernambuco
3/25/16, 8:45 PM ET
Brazil2-1Uruguay
Confederations CupEstádio Governador Magalhães Pinto (Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais)
6/26/13, 3:00 PM ET

Managers

M. Bielsa

Argentina · 70

In charge since 2024 · 13 teams managed

Leeds United2018–2022
Lille2017–2017
Marseille2014–2015
Athletic Bilbao2011–2013

C. Ancelotti

Italy · 66

In charge since 2025 · 11 teams managed

Real Madrid2021–2025
Everton2019–2021
Napoli2018–2019
Bayern Munich2016–2017

Export artefact

Shareable artefact

Card

MeisterIQ, the four model inputs, model vs market and the edge

Format

Unlock HD & unbranded →

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.

The match report

Match report

Uruguay and Brazil drew 0-0 at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada.

How it unfolded: 121' F. Valverde (URU pen), 123' R. Bentancur (URU pen), 124' Andreas Pereira (BRA pen), 125' G. de Arrascaeta (URU pen), 128' Gabriel Martinelli (BRA pen), 129' M. Ugarte (URU pen).

The numbers, URU to BRA: possession 40% to 60%; shots on target 1 to 3; total shots 12 to 7; corners 6 to 2.

Top match ratings: Sergio Rochet (URU) at 7.6, Alisson (BRA) at 7.5.

Discipline: 4 yellow cards, 1 red (Nahitan Nández).

Changes off the bench: URU 5, BRA 5.

The model leaned Brazil at 42% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 32%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.

Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Uruguay 0-1 Brazil; the match finished 0-0.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output and real match data

Match data

How it unfolded: 121' F. Valverde (URU pen), 123' R. Bentancur (URU pen), 124' Andreas Pereira (BRA pen), 125' G. de Arrascaeta (URU pen), 128' Gabriel Martinelli (BRA pen), 129' M. Ugarte (URU pen).
The numbers, URU to BRA: possession 40% to 60%; shots on target 1 to 3; total shots 12 to 7; corners 6 to 2.
Top match ratings: Sergio Rochet (URU) at 7.6, Alisson (BRA) at 7.5.
Discipline: 4 yellow cards, 1 red (Nahitan Nández).
Changes off the bench: URU 5, BRA 5.

How the model graded

The model leaned Brazil at 42% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 32%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.

Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Uruguay 0-1 Brazil; the match finished 0-0.

Export artefact

Shareable artefact

Card

MeisterIQ, the four model inputs, model vs market and the edge

Format

Unlock HD & unbranded →

Uruguay v Brazil

Uruguay v Brazil: the model read

Your call

Uruguay

Brazil

Export artefact

Export artefact

Export artefact

Momentum

Kickoff preview