Comunicaciones were beaten 2-1 by Colegiales in the Clausura - 18 match at Estadio Alfredo Ramos, a result that contradicted the Lemeister model's expectation of a narrow home win. The model had given Comunicaciones a 36 per cent probability and projected a 1-0 victory, but Colegiales proved more clinical in the decisive moments of the first half and early second half. The visitors' efficiency in front of goal, despite limited statistical evidence of overall dominance, was the determining factor in a contest where the hosts could not translate their theoretical advantage into points.
The opening goal arrived in the 17th minute when F. Villacorta found the net for Colegiales, giving the visitors an early foothold in a match that the model had expected Comunicaciones to control. Colegiales doubled their advantage shortly after the restart, with S. Camacho scoring in the 47th minute, a goal that came just two minutes into the second half and proved particularly damaging for the hosts. Conceding so early after the interval left Comunicaciones chasing the game for the entire second period, forcing them into a reactive posture that limited their ability to build sustained pressure. Comunicaciones reduced the deficit in the 78th minute through T. Díaz Grassano, but could not find an equaliser as Colegiales held on for three points, with no further goals in the final 12 minutes plus stoppage time.
The scoring pattern underscores a match decided by Colegiales' efficiency in key phases rather than by sustained territorial control or chance creation. Two goals inside the opening 47 minutes gave them firm control, while Comunicaciones, despite pulling one back, were unable to complete a comeback. The absence of any cards in the match indicates a disciplined contest, with neither side resorting to cynical fouls to disrupt play, and suggests that the tactical battle was conducted within the laws rather than through attrition. The four substitutions made by the home side and five by the visitors hint at attempts to influence the game from the bench, but no statistical data on shot attempts, possession, passing accuracy or expected goals is available to quantify the balance of play beyond the scoreline.
For Colegiales, the contributions of F. Villacorta and S. Camacho proved decisive. Both goalscorers delivered when their side needed them, with Villacorta's early strike and Camacho's immediate post-interval goal effectively settling the contest before Comunicaciones could establish any rhythm. T. Díaz Grassano's 78th-minute goal for the hosts, while insufficient to earn a point, demonstrated that Comunicaciones retained the capacity to trouble the visitors' defence even when trailing. The lack of any assists in the goals data suggests all three strikes were individual efforts, though the precise manner of their creation cannot be determined from the available information.
The result carries weight in the context of the Clausura - 18 round and the broader competition standings. Colegiales, who travelled as the statistical underdog with only a 30 per cent chance according to the model, leave the capital with a valuable away win that could prove significant in the tightly contested Primera B Metropolitana table. Comunicaciones, having been favoured by the model at 36 per cent and projected to win 1-0, drop points at home in a match they were expected to control. The Lemeister model's misreading of the outcome, which also gave a 34 per cent chance of a draw, illustrates the unpredictability of this level of Argentine football, where fine margins and individual moments of quality often override probabilistic forecasts. Comunicaciones will need to reassess their approach to prevent similar outcomes in the remaining fixtures, particularly the concession of goals in the opening stages of each half, while Colegiales will look to build on a performance that delivered maximum points against the odds.
