Bourj v Safa: the model read
Bourj meet Safa in the Federation Cup group stage - 3 at Amin Abdelnour Stadium, Bhamdoun. The model makes Safa the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 25% BOU, 29% draw, 46% SAF.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Safa, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Safa on expected goals, 1.8 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Safa at 65%; double chance reads Bourj or draw 54%, Safa or draw 75%.
Bourj arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Al Ansar, L 1-4 v Al Ahed, W 1-0 v Reyady Abaseya, W 2-1 v Racing.
Safa are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Al Mabarrah, D 1-1 @ Jwaaya FC, L 1-4 @ Al Ahed, W 4-2 @ Reyady Abaseya.
Safa hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 5 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Safa 2-0 Bourj.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
