Castanhal v Águia de Marabá: the model read
Castanhal meet Águia de Marabá in the Paraense quarter-finals at Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho, Castanhal, Pará. The model makes Águia de Marabá the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 28% CAS, 30% draw, 43% ÁGU.
Águia de Marabá rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1615 to 1454. Recent form leans Águia de Marabá, 65% against 45%. Attacking output favors Águia de Marabá on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 55%. Draw no bet leans Águia de Marabá at 60%; double chance reads Castanhal or draw 57%, Águia de Marabá or draw 72%.
Castanhal arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Nova Iguaçu, L 0-1 v Capitao Poco, D 0-0 v Águia de Marabá, D 1-1 v Guarani Campinas.
Águia de Marabá are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ ABC, W 2-1 v ABC, W 2-0 v Parnahyba, L 1-2 @ Parnahyba.
Águia de Marabá hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Castanhal 0-0 Águia de Marabá.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
