Atletico Paranaense v Libertad Asuncion: the model read
Atletico Paranaense meet Libertad Asuncion in the CONMEBOL Libertadores group stage - 5 at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba, Paraná. The model makes Atletico Paranaense the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% ATL, 32% draw, 30% LIB.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Atletico Paranaense, 53% against 40%. Attacking output favors Libertad Asuncion on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans Atletico Paranaense at 56%; double chance reads Atletico Paranaense or draw 70%, Libertad Asuncion or draw 61%.
Atletico Paranaense arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Sao Paulo, L 1-2 @ RB Bragantino, L 0-1 @ Boca Juniors, W 1-0 v Mirassol.
Libertad Asuncion are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v UCV, L 1-2 @ Nacional Asuncion, L 1-4 @ Independiente del Valle, D 0-0 v 2 de Mayo.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
