Skip to content
Serie A · Regular Season - 4 · Brazil

Atletico Paranaense v Flamengo

2-1Full time· Arena da Baixada, Curitiba, Paraná· Referee: Raphael Claus

Share
Match analysisPre-match brief

Atletico Paranaense v Flamengo: the model read

Atletico Paranaense meet Flamengo in the Serie A regular season - 4 at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba, Paraná. The model makes Flamengo the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 26% ATL, 30% draw, 44% FLA.

Flamengo rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1710 to 1523. Recent form leans Flamengo, 79% against 53%. Attacking output favors Flamengo on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans Flamengo at 62%; double chance reads Atletico Paranaense or draw 56%, Flamengo or draw 74%.

Atletico Paranaense arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Sao Paulo, L 1-2 @ RB Bragantino, L 0-1 @ Boca Juniors, W 1-0 v Mirassol.

Flamengo are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 14 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ Chapecoense-sc, W 4-2 v Olimpia, W 2-1 @ Benfica, W 2-0 v Lausanne.

Flamengo hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Flamengo.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

Pro

The model forecast is a Pro feature.

Live scores, stats and commentary are always free. The glass-box model — probabilities, the edge against the market and the full match dossier — unlocks on Pro.

See plans

Atletico Paranaense

WWLLW8-5-7

Scored 1.20 · Conceded 1.00 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 50%

  • WASao Paulo2-1
  • LARB Bragantino1-2
  • LABoca Juniors0-1
  • WHMirassol1-0
  • WARemo2-1

Flamengo

DWWWW13-4-2

Scored 2.11 · Conceded 0.89 · Clean sheets 42.1% · BTTS 47.4%

  • WAChapecoense-sc4-0
  • WHOlimpia4-2
  • WABenfica2-1
  • WHLausanne2-0
  • DHRiver Plate2-2

Head-to-head

10 meetings

Atletico ParanaenserecordFlamengo
2
6
2 draws

Goals

8-15

for each

Avg goals

2.3

per game

BTTS

40%

both scored

Over 2.5

40%

3+ goals

Atletico Paranaense

Recent
DLDWLL
Wins 2Goals 8-15

Biggest win 3-0

Flamengo

Recent
DWDLWW
Wins 6Goals 15-8

Biggest win 5-0

  • Atletico Paranaense1-1Flamengo
  • Flamengo1-0Atletico Paranaense
  • Atletico Paranaense1-1Flamengo
  • Flamengo0-3Atletico Paranaense
  • Atletico Paranaense0-2Flamengo
  • Flamengo2-1Atletico Paranaense
  • Atletico Paranaense2-1Flamengo
  • Flamengo1-0Atletico Paranaense
  • Atletico Paranaense0-1Flamengo
  • Flamengo5-0Atletico Paranaense

Managers

Odair Hellmann

Brazil · 48

In charge since 2025 · 9 clubs managed

  • Al Raed2024–2025
  • Al Riyadh2023–2024
  • Santos2022–2023
  • Al Wasl2020–2022

Marcelo Salles

Brazil · 41

In charge since 2019 · 6 clubs managed

  • Nova Iguaçu2018–2019
  • Volta Redonda2018–2018
  • Bonsucesso2017–2018
  • Portuguesa RJ2016–2016

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.