United States v Australia

United States meet Australia in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group d at Lumen Field, Seattle. The model makes United States the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% USA, 31% draw, 31% AUS.

The baseline ratings are close, 1870 to 1810, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 62%. Attacking output favors United States on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.

Model score projection: most likely United States 1-0 Australia, from expected goals of 1.5 to 1.1.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans United States at 55%; double chance reads United States or draw 69%, Australia or draw 62%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.