Panama v Croatia

Panama meet Croatia in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group l at BMO Field, Toronto. The model makes Croatia the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 28% PAN, 30% draw, 42% CRO.

Croatia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1930 to 1730. Recent form leans Croatia, 66% against 56%. Attacking output favors Croatia on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.1 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Panama 0-1 Croatia, from expected goals of 0.9 to 1.7.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans Croatia at 60%; double chance reads Panama or draw 58%, Croatia or draw 72%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.