New Zealand v Egypt

New Zealand meet Egypt in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group g at BC Place, Vancouver. The model makes Egypt the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 29% NZL, 31% draw, 40% EGY.

The baseline ratings are close, 1690 to 1800, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 54% against 62%. Attacking output favors Egypt on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.0 per match.

Model score projection: most likely New Zealand 0-1 Egypt, from expected goals of 0.8 to 1.4.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Egypt at 58%; double chance reads New Zealand or draw 60%, Egypt or draw 71%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.