Netherlands v Japan

Netherlands meet Japan in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group f at AT&T Stadium, Arlington. The model makes Netherlands the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% NED, 30% draw, 33% JPN.

The baseline ratings are close, 2000 to 1900, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 72% against 72%. Attacking output favors Netherlands on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Netherlands 1-0 Japan, from expected goals of 1.5 to 1.2.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Netherlands at 53%; double chance reads Netherlands or draw 67%, Japan or draw 63%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.