France v Iraq

France meet Iraq in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group i at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. The model makes France the most likely outcome at 51%, with the full read 51% FRA, 28% draw, 21% IRQ.

France rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2060 to 1700. Recent form leans France, 74% against 54%. Attacking output favors France on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.0 per match.

Model score projection: most likely France 2-0 Iraq, from expected goals of 2.5 to 0.6.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 60%. Draw no bet leans France at 71%; double chance reads France or draw 79%, Iraq or draw 49%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.