England v Argentina

England meet Argentina in the FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. The model makes Argentina the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% ENG, 31% draw, 37% ARG.

The baseline ratings are close, 2040 to 2100, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Argentina, 80% against 72%. Attacking output favors Argentina on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.9 per match.

Model score projection: most likely England 0-1 Argentina, from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.5.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Argentina at 53%; double chance reads England or draw 63%, Argentina or draw 68%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.