Croatia v Ghana

Croatia meet Ghana in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group l at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. The model makes Croatia the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% CRO, 31% draw, 30% GHA.

Croatia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1930 to 1780. Recent form separates little, 66% against 60%. Attacking output favors Croatia on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Croatia 1-0 Ghana, from expected goals of 1.6 to 1.0.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans Croatia at 57%; double chance reads Croatia or draw 70%, Ghana or draw 60%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.