Canada v Morocco

Canada meet Morocco in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16 at NRG Stadium, Houston. The model makes Morocco the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 31% CAN, 31% draw, 38% MAR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1840 to 1910, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 64% against 72%. Attacking output favors Canada on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.5 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Canada 0-1 Morocco, from expected goals of 1.0 to 1.5.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Morocco at 55%; double chance reads Canada or draw 62%, Morocco or draw 69%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.