Saint-Étienne II outscored Aix les Bains 4-2 at the Stade Municipal Jacques Forestier, a result that the Lemeister model had tilted slightly in the visitors' favour before kick-off, giving them a 38 per cent win probability. The scoreline was built from a flurry of first-half goals and a quick exchange late on, but the decisive margin was established through Saint-Étienne II's efficient finishing across both periods.
The opening goal arrived in the 12th minute. T. Desprez was credited with the strike, though the goal type was recorded as an own goal, meaning the ball ended up in the Aix les Bains net via a Saint-Étienne II player's touch. Aix les Bains would have been frustrated to concede that way so early. The lead was doubled in the 20th minute when A. Sidibé scored a normal goal, giving the visitors a cushion that forced the home side to chase the game. Saint-Étienne II added a third just before half-time, K. Cissé finding the net in the 42nd minute. Aix les Bains responded instantly, D. Sacko pulling one back in the 43rd minute, making it 3-1 at the interval and keeping the home side within striking distance.
The second half settled into a more patient rhythm. M. Saban restored Saint-Étienne II's three-goal advantage in the 84th minute with a normal goal, effectively killing off the contest. Aix les Bains replied immediately again, M. Bado scoring in the 85th minute, but it was too late to affect the outcome. The two quick exchanges, both in the final minutes and the close of the first half, highlighted a game that lacked sustained spells of control from either side.
The data shows a contest that was more open than the scoreline suggests. Possession was split evenly at 50 per cent each, indicating neither team was able to dominate the ball. Saint-Étienne II generated the more dangerous chances, registering 14 shots to Aix les Bains' 10, and put six on target compared to the home side's four. Expected goals also favoured the visitors, with Saint-Étienne II accumulating 1.8 xG against Aix les Bains' 1.2. While the home side created enough to score twice, the visitors' superior conversion rate, particularly from open play with four normal goals, was the clear difference.
Passing accuracy was almost identical: 81 per cent for Aix les Bains and 80 per cent for Saint-Étienne II. Each side had their share of corners, with the home side earning four against the visitors' three. There were no cards in the match, suggesting a disciplined contest in which neither side resorted to fouls to stop momentum. Aix les Bains made four substitutions and Saint-Étienne II made five, but the data does not record which players were replaced.
The match ratings are not available in the data, so individual performances beyond the goalscorers cannot be assessed. The absence of assists on any of the six goals means that all finishes were either unassisted or from rebounds and loose balls, reinforcing the sense that defensive errors and individual moments decided the game rather than cohesive build-up play.
For Saint-Étienne II, this result strengthens their position in National 3 Group M, keeping them competitive in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes round. For Aix les Bains, conceding four goals on home turf, despite scoring two themselves, is a setback that leaves them needing to tighten their defensive structure. The Lemeister model's pre-match forecast, which saw Saint-Étienne II as slight favourites, was borne out by the final score, though the open nature of the game might have offered the home side more hope than the final margin suggests.
