Where the market is wrong on China PR U23 v Thailand U23
China PR U23 meet Thailand U23 in the Asian Games quarter-finals at Toyota Stadium, Toyota.
China PR U23 rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1500. Recent form leans China PR U23, 73% against 50%. Attacking output favors Thailand U23 on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
China PR U23 arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 8 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Thailand U23, D 0-0 v UAE U23, D 0-0 @ Iran U23, W 2-1 v Korea DPR U23.
Thailand U23 are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 10 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ China PR U23, L 0-3 @ Japan U23, W 5-1 @ Hong Kong U23, W 3-2 v Kyrgyz Republic U23.
China PR U23 hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: China PR U23 3-0 Thailand U23.
The market prices CHI at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on China PR U23: a 5.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 69 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
