Where the market is wrong on Uganda U20 v Sudan U20
Uganda U20 meet Sudan U20 in the CECAFA U20 Championship semi-finals at Uhuru Stadium, Dar-es-Salaam.
Uganda U20 rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1625 to 1461. Recent form leans Uganda U20, 66% against 41%. Attacking output favors Uganda U20 on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.
Uganda U20 arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Sudan U20, W 1-0 @ Sudan U20, W 4-1 v Djibouti U20, W 3-1 v Burundi U20.
Sudan U20 are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Uganda U20, L 0-1 v Uganda U20, W 3-0 @ Djibouti U20, L 0-4 v Kenya U20.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Uganda U20 2-3 Sudan U20.
The market prices UGA at 59% implied. Our number sits apart on Sudan U20: a 9.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
