Where the market is wrong on Fiji v Vanuatu
Fiji meet Vanuatu in the Friendlies friendly international.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1547, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Vanuatu, 56% against 43%. Attacking output favors Vanuatu on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.0 per match.
Fiji arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Papua New Guinea, L 0-1 v Vanuatu, D 2-2 @ Vanuatu, L 1-2 @ Vanuatu.
Vanuatu are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 12 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v New Caledonia, D 3-3 @ Solomon Islands, W 1-0 @ Fiji, D 2-2 v Fiji.
The market prices FIJ at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Vanuatu: a 17.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
