Where the market is wrong on Maldives v Lebanon
Maldives meet Lebanon in the Friendlies friendly international at Dolen Omurzakov Stadium, Bishkek.
Lebanon rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1664 to 1400. Recent form leans Lebanon, 72% against 23%. Attacking output favors Lebanon on expected goals, 2.1 to 0.7 per match.
Maldives arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 1 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: L 0-6 v Lebanon, L 0-5 @ Kyrgyzstan, L 0-3 @ China, D 1-1 v Bangladesh U23.
Lebanon are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 14 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 6-0 @ Maldives, L 0-2 v Yemen, L 1-2 @ Sudan, W 3-0 @ Brunei.
Lebanon hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Maldives 0-6 Lebanon.
The market prices MAL at 3% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 11.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 61 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
