Where the market is wrong on St. Lucia v Guadeloupe
St. Lucia meet Guadeloupe in the CONCACAF Nations League league b - 2 at BFA Technical Centre, Bridgetown.
Guadeloupe rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1454. Recent form leans Guadeloupe, 60% against 40%. Attacking output favors Guadeloupe on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.3 per match.
St. Lucia arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Guadeloupe, W 5-2 v Bermuda, L 0-2 @ Barbados, L 1-6 @ Azerbaijan.
Guadeloupe are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ St. Lucia, D 2-2 v Barbados, W 2-1 @ Bermuda, L 2-3 v Guatemala.
St. Lucia hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: St. Lucia 3-0 Guadeloupe.
The market prices ST. at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on Guadeloupe: a 8.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
