Where the market is wrong on Leiston v Dartford
Leiston meet Dartford in the FA Trophy final.
Dartford rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1722 to 1558. Recent form leans Dartford, 79% against 57%. Attacking output favors Leiston on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.
Leiston arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Real Bedford, L 0-3 v Dartford, L 0-2 v Peterborough Sports, W 2-1 @ Hitchin Town.
Dartford are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 14 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Whitehawk, W 3-0 @ Leiston, W 4-2 v Hayes & Yeading United, W 2-0 @ Enfield Town.
Dartford hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Leiston 0-3 Dartford.
The market prices LEI at 36% implied. Our number sits apart on Dartford: a 6.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 70 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
