Where the market is wrong on China W v Philippines W
China W meet Philippines W in the Asian Games Women group stage - 3 at Nagaragawa Stadium, Gifu.
The baseline ratings are close, 1625 to 1516, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans China W, 66% against 50%. Attacking output favors China W on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.6 per match.
China W arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 15 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Vietnam W, W 5-1 v Philippines W, D 1-1 @ Uzbekistan W, W 5-1 v Hong Kong W.
Philippines W are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Japan W, L 1-5 @ China W, W 2-0 @ Hong Kong W, D 1-1 v Uzbekistan W.
China W hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: China W 5-1 Philippines W.
The market prices CHI at 86% implied. Our number sits apart on Philippines W: a 25.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
