Where the market is wrong on Concepción v Curico Unido
Concepción meet Curico Unido in the Copa Chile round of 16 at Estadio Ester Roa, undefined.
Concepción rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1673 to 1466. Recent form leans Concepción, 73% against 45%. Attacking output favors Concepción on expected goals, 1.7 to 0.8 per match.
Concepción arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Curico Unido, W 4-0 @ Curico Unido, D 1-1 @ Colo Colo, L 0-1 v A. Italiano.
Curico Unido are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 2 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Concepción, L 0-4 v Concepción, L 0-3 @ San Marcos de Arica, W 2-1 v Union Espanola.
Concepción hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Concepción 2-0 Curico Unido.
The market prices CON at 70% implied. Our number sits apart on Curico Unido: a 11.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
