Cleethorpes Town v Newcastle Town

Cleethorpes Town meet Newcastle Town in the FA Cup 1st round qualifying.

The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1586, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 61%. Attacking output favors Cleethorpes Town on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.3 per match.

Cleethorpes Town arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 14 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Newcastle Town, W 3-0 @ Gainsborough Trinity, L 1-3 v Curzon Ashton, W 6-0 v Whitby Town.

Newcastle Town are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Cleethorpes Town, L 0-3 v Bourne Town, L 1-2 v Runcorn Linnets, W 3-2 @ Lower Breck.

Newcastle Town hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cleethorpes Town 1-2 Newcastle Town.

The market prices CLE at 71% implied. Our number sits apart on Newcastle Town: a 16.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.