Where the market is wrong on Fagiano Okayama v Beluga Rosso Iwami
Fagiano Okayama meet Beluga Rosso Iwami in the Emperor Cup 2nd round at City Light Stadium, Okayama.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Fagiano Okayama, 50% against 20%. Attacking output favors Fagiano Okayama on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans Fagiano Okayama at 63%; double chance reads Fagiano Okayama or draw 75%, Beluga Rosso Iwami or draw 57%.
Fagiano Okayama arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Beluga Rosso Iwami, D 0-0 v Tokyo Verdy, W 1-0 v V-varen Nagasaki, L 1-2 @ Cerezo Osaka.
Beluga Rosso Iwami are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Fagiano Okayama, W 2-0 v Nagasaki Intl University, L 0-1 v Kitakyushu, L 0-1 @ Kochi United.
The market prices FAG at 89% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 23.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
