Where the market is wrong on Olimpia v Cerro Porteno
Olimpia meet Cerro Porteno in the Division Profesional - Clausura clausura - 6 at Osvaldo Domínguez Dibb, Asuncion.
The baseline ratings are close, 1541 to 1528, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 53%. Attacking output favors Olimpia on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 42%. Draw no bet leans Cerro Porteno at 52%; double chance reads Olimpia or draw 64%, Cerro Porteno or draw 67%.
Olimpia arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 5-3 @ Cristóbal Colón JAS, W 2-1 v Cerro Porteno, L 1-4 v Vasco DA Gama, W 2-1 v Sportivo Ameliano.
Cerro Porteno are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Resistencia, L 1-2 @ Olimpia, L 0-1 v Palmeiras, W 1-0 v Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
Olimpia hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Olimpia 2-1 Cerro Porteno.
The market prices OLI at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Cerro Porteno: a 11.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
