Where the market is wrong on Leon v Piacenza
Leon meet Piacenza in the Serie D - Girone B group b - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 65%. Attacking output favors Piacenza on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Leon arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Piacenza, D 1-1 @ Caldiero Terme, W 2-0 v Brusaporto, L 0-4 @ USD Casatese.
Piacenza are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Leon, L 0-1 v Virtus Verona, W 2-1 @ Tritium, W 2-0 @ Lentigione.
The market prices LEO at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output