Where the market is wrong on Pennarossa v Fiorentino
Pennarossa meet Fiorentino in the Campionato regular season - 4.
Fiorentino rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1523 to 1400. Recent form leans Fiorentino, 50% against 33%. Attacking output favors Fiorentino on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.0 per match.
Pennarossa arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 7 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: L 1-6 @ Cosmos, W 3-0 v Cailungo, L 1-4 v Murata, L 2-5 @ Tre Fiori.
Fiorentino are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v La Fiorita, L 0-1 v Tre Fiori, L 0-1 v Virtus, W 2-0 @ San Marino Academy.
Fiorentino hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Pennarossa 2-4 Fiorentino.
The market prices PEN at 17% implied. Our number sits apart on Pennarossa: a 8.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
