Where the market is wrong on Gemert v GOES
Gemert meet GOES in the Derde Divisie regular season - 2.
Gemert rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1400. Recent form leans Gemert, 57% against 33%. Attacking output favors Gemert on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 75%, over 2.5 goals around 88%. Draw no bet leans Gemert at 66%; double chance reads Gemert or draw 75%, GOES or draw 51%.
Gemert arrive steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 14 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v GOES, D 2-2 @ Rijnvogels, D 1-1 v Helmond Sport, D 3-3 @ GOES.
GOES are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 11 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Gemert, W 3-2 v EVV, D 3-3 v Gemert, L 0-1 @ Vvsb.
GOES hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Gemert 2-2 GOES.
The market prices GEM at 59% implied. Our number sits apart on GOES: a 6.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
