Shams Azar Qazvin v Aluminium Arak

Shams Azar Qazvin meet Aluminium Arak in the Persian Gulf Pro League regular season - 3 at Sardar Azadegan Stadium, Qazvin.

The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 41% against 41%. Attacking output favors Shams Azar Qazvin on expected goals, 0.7 to 0.7 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 13%, over 2.5 goals around 6%. Draw no bet leans Aluminium Arak at 51%; double chance reads Shams Azar Qazvin or draw 69%, Aluminium Arak or draw 70%.

Shams Azar Qazvin arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 2 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Aluminium Arak, D 1-1 @ Foolad FC, L 0-2 v Persepolis FC, L 0-2 v Foolad FC.

Aluminium Arak are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts), 5 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Shams Azar Qazvin, D 0-0 v Chadormalu SC, W 2-0 @ Esteghlal Khuzestan, D 1-1 v Paykan.

Aluminium Arak hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Shams Azar Qazvin 1-2 Aluminium Arak.

The market prices SHA at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 63 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.