Where the market is wrong on Alcantarilla v Cotillas CD
Alcantarilla meet Cotillas CD in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 group 13 - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1496, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 50%. Attacking output favors Cotillas CD on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
Alcantarilla arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Cotillas CD, D 0-0 v Atlético Pulpileño, D 1-1 @ Águilas II, L 0-4 @ Atlético Pulpileño.
Cotillas CD are patchy: 1W-1D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Alcantarilla, D 2-2 v Águilas II, W 2-1 @ Mazarrón FC.
The market prices ALC at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 60 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
