Where the market is wrong on Masr v Al Ahly
Masr meet Al Ahly in the Premier League regular season - 2 at Cairo International Stadium, Cairo.
Al Ahly rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1454. Recent form leans Al Ahly, 63% against 45%. Attacking output favors Al Ahly on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 31%. Draw no bet leans Al Ahly at 60%; double chance reads Masr or draw 59%, Al Ahly or draw 73%.
Masr arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 1 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Al Ahly, D 0-0 @ Wadi Degla, L 0-2 v Wadi Degla, L 0-1 @ AL Masry.
Al Ahly are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Masr, W 3-2 v Enppi, L 1-2 @ Barcelona, W 2-0 @ AL Masry.
The market prices MAS at 10% implied. Our number sits apart on Masr: a 17.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
