Where the market is wrong on Muharraq v Al Ahli
Muharraq meet Al Ahli in the Premier League regular season - 1.
Muharraq rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1742 to 1443. Recent form leans Muharraq, 83% against 43%. Attacking output favors Muharraq on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans Muharraq at 73%; double chance reads Muharraq or draw 81%, Al Ahli or draw 47%.
Muharraq arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Al Ahli, W 1-0 v A'Ali, W 2-1 @ Khalidiya, W 3-1 @ Al Najma.
Al Ahli are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Muharraq, D 2-2 @ Budaiya, L 0-1 v Al-Hidd, W 2-0 @ Sitra.
The market prices MUH at 64% implied. Our number sits apart on Al Ahli: a 6.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
