Where the market is wrong on Union Brescia v Athletic Carpi
Union Brescia meet Athletic Carpi in the Serie C - Girone A girone a - 1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia.
Union Brescia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1408. Recent form leans Union Brescia, 60% against 35%. Attacking output favors Union Brescia on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 28%, over 2.5 goals around 27%. Draw no bet leans Union Brescia at 63%; double chance reads Union Brescia or draw 75%, Athletic Carpi or draw 58%.
Union Brescia arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Athletic Carpi, L 0-2 @ Arezzo, D 1-1 @ Pro Palazzolo, L 0-3 @ Ascoli.
Athletic Carpi are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Union Brescia, W 3-2 v Pianese, W 1-0 @ Mantova, L 0-1 @ Cesena.
The market prices UNI at 71% implied. Our number sits apart on Athletic Carpi: a 14.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
