Where the market is wrong on San Martin Formosa v 9 de Julio Rafaela
San Martin Formosa meet 9 de Julio Rafaela in the Torneo Federal A winners stage - 5 at 17 De Octubre, Formosa.
San Martin Formosa rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1500. Recent form leans San Martin Formosa, 70% against 50%. Attacking output favors San Martin Formosa on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans San Martin Formosa at 57%; double chance reads San Martin Formosa or draw 70%, 9 de Julio Rafaela or draw 60%.
San Martin Formosa arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 11 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v 9 de Julio Rafaela, D 1-1 @ Gimnasia Chivilcoy, W 2-0 v Sportivo Belgrano, W 4-1 @ Douglas Haig.
9 de Julio Rafaela are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ San Martin Formosa, W 1-0 v Gimnasia Chivilcoy, D 1-1 @ Sportivo Belgrano, D 0-0 v Douglas Haig.
San Martin Formosa hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: San Martin Formosa 2-1 9 de Julio Rafaela.
The market prices SAN at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on 9 de Julio Rafaela: a 11.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
