Where the market is wrong on Vila Meã v Os Limianos
Vila Meã meet Os Limianos in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A group a - 2.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 42% against 50%. Attacking output favors Os Limianos on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Os Limianos at 52%; double chance reads Vila Meã or draw 64%, Os Limianos or draw 67%.
Vila Meã arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Os Limianos, W 2-1 @ Ponte da Barca, D 0-0 v Anadia, D 1-1 @ Vila Real.
Os Limianos are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Vila Meã, W 3-1 v Chaves II, L 1-4 @ Vianense, D 0-0 v Tirsense.
Vila Meã hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Vila Meã 1-1 Os Limianos.
The market prices VIL at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on Os Limianos: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 61 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
