Kilmarnock v Ayr Utd: the model read
Kilmarnock meet Ayr Utd in the League Cup round of 16 at Rugby Park, Kilmarnock. The model makes Kilmarnock the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% KIL, 29% draw, 32% AYR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1516, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Kilmarnock, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Kilmarnock on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans Kilmarnock at 55%; double chance reads Kilmarnock or draw 68%, Ayr Utd or draw 61%.
Kilmarnock arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 5 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Peterhead, W 1-0 v Hamilton Academical, W 1-0 @ Elgin City, D 0-0 v Raith Rovers.
Ayr Utd are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Alloa Athletic, W 2-0 v Edinburgh City, W 1-0 @ Falkirk, W 3-2 @ Stranraer.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
