Where the market is wrong on Kapaz v Sumqayıt
Kapaz meet Sumqayıt in the Premyer Liqa regular season - 6 at Ganja City Stadium, Tovuz.
The baseline ratings are close, 1444 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Kapaz, 39% against 26%. Attacking output favors Sumqayıt on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.
Kapaz arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Sumqayıt, W 1-0 v Qabala, L 1-4 v Şamaxı FK, W 1-0 v Turan.
Sumqayıt are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Kapaz, D 1-1 v Şamaxı FK, L 1-2 @ Turan, L 0-1 v Qarabag.
The market prices KAP at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
