Where the market is wrong on Sabah FA v Penang
Sabah FA meet Penang in the Super League regular season - 2 at Likas Stadium, Kota Kinabalu.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 50%. Attacking output favors Sabah FA on expected goals, 1.0 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 22%. Draw no bet leans Sabah FA at 51%; double chance reads Sabah FA or draw 68%, Penang or draw 66%.
Sabah FA arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Penang, W 3-1 v Imigresen, L 0-3 v Persib Bandung, L 0-1 v Terengganu.
Penang are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Sabah FA, L 0-1 v DPMM FC Brunei, W 2-1 v DPMM FC Brunei, D 1-1 @ Pdrm.
The market prices SAB at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 9.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 73 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
