Where the market is wrong on Isidro Metapán v Alianza
Isidro Metapán meet Alianza in the Primera Division apertura - 6.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 53%. Attacking output favors Isidro Metapán on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Alianza at 51%; double chance reads Isidro Metapán or draw 66%, Alianza or draw 66%.
Isidro Metapán arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Alianza, L 0-1 @ Fuerte San Francisco, W 2-1 v Águila, D 0-0 @ Atletico Balboa.
Alianza are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Platense, L 0-2 @ Isidro Metapán, W 1-0 @ CD Marathon, D 0-0 v Cacahuatique.
The market prices ISI at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Alianza: a 8.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 72 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
