Where the market is wrong on Khorfakkan v Al-Dhafra
Khorfakkan meet Al-Dhafra in the Pro League regular season - 3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khor Fakkan.
The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Khorfakkan, 38% against 15%. Attacking output favors Khorfakkan on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.6 per match.
Khorfakkan arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Al-Dhafra, L 0-2 @ Al Ain, L 1-5 v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, L 1-3 @ Sharjah FC.
Al-Dhafra are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 2 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Khorfakkan, L 0-2 @ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, L 1-3 v Sharjah FC, L 0-2 @ Konyaspor.
Khorfakkan hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 3 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Khorfakkan 2-0 Al-Dhafra.
The market prices KHO at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
