Where the market is wrong on Penafiel U23 v Marítimo U23
Penafiel U23 meet Marítimo U23 in the Liga Revelação U23 regular season - 2.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Penafiel U23, 50% against 38%. Attacking output favors Penafiel U23 on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 80%. Draw no bet leans Penafiel U23 at 57%; double chance reads Penafiel U23 or draw 69%, Marítimo U23 or draw 59%.
Penafiel U23 arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-0L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Marítimo U23, D 2-2 @ Portimonense U23.
Marítimo U23 are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Penafiel U23, W 1-0 v Estrela U23, L 0-2 @ Gil Vicente U23, L 1-2 v Farense U23.
The market prices PEN at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on Penafiel U23: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 64 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output