Caldas v Vitória de Sernache: the model read
Caldas meet Vitória de Sernache in the Liga 3 regular season - 5 at Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha. The model makes Vitória de Sernache the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 22% CAL, 35% draw, 43% VIT.
Vitória de Sernache rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1400. Recent form leans Vitória de Sernache, 68% against 33%. Attacking output favors Vitória de Sernache on expected goals, 1.0 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 18%, over 2.5 goals around 18%. Draw no bet leans Vitória de Sernache at 66%; double chance reads Caldas or draw 57%, Vitória de Sernache or draw 78%.
Caldas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ 1º Dezembro, D 1-1 v SC Covilha, L 0-2 @ Atlético CP, W 2-1 @ Amora.
Vitória de Sernache are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Leça, D 1-1 v Louletano, W 3-0 @ Atlético Malveira, D 0-0 v Oliveira Hospital.
Caldas hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2019: Vitória de Sernache 1-2 Caldas.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
