Where the market is wrong on CF Os Belenenses v União Santarém
CF Os Belenenses meet União Santarém in the Liga 3 regular season - 3.
CF Os Belenenses rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1577 to 1400. Recent form leans CF Os Belenenses, 61% against 33%. Attacking output favors CF Os Belenenses on expected goals, 1.7 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans CF Os Belenenses at 66%; double chance reads CF Os Belenenses or draw 76%, União Santarém or draw 53%.
CF Os Belenenses arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 v União Santarém, W 3-1 @ Louletano, W 1-0 v Caldas, D 1-1 v Estoril.
União Santarém are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 @ CF Os Belenenses, D 1-1 v Oliveirense, L 0-2 @ SC Covilha, D 0-0 v Academica.
CF Os Belenenses hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: CF Os Belenenses 5-0 União Santarém.
The market prices CF at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on União Santarém: a 5.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
