Where the market is wrong on Avro v Workington
Avro meet Workington in the Non League Premier - Northern regular season - 4.
Avro rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1523. Recent form leans Avro, 75% against 53%. Attacking output favors Avro on expected goals, 2.9 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 80%. Draw no bet leans Avro at 68%; double chance reads Avro or draw 76%, Workington or draw 50%.
Avro arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Hyde United, W 4-1 v Workington, L 0-3 @ Alfreton Town, W 6-1 @ Bamber Bridge.
Workington are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ United of Manchester, L 1-4 @ Avro, D 2-2 v Guiseley AFC, L 0-1 v Redcar Athletic.
The market prices AVR at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
