Ferroviario v Goiatuba EC

Ferroviario meet Goiatuba EC in the Serie D round of 16 at Estadio Presidente Vargas, Fortaleza. The model makes Goiatuba EC the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 32% FER, 32% draw, 35% GOI.

The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 68%. Attacking output favors Ferroviario on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 41%, over 2.5 goals around 34%. Draw no bet leans Goiatuba EC at 52%; double chance reads Ferroviario or draw 65%, Goiatuba EC or draw 68%.

Ferroviario arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Goiatuba EC, L 0-3 @ Goiatuba EC, W 3-0 v Imperatriz, D 1-1 @ Imperatriz.

Goiatuba EC are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Ferroviario, W 3-0 v Ferroviario, W 2-1 @ Manauara, L 0-1 v Manauara.

Goiatuba EC hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ferroviario 1-2 Goiatuba EC.

The market prices FER at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Goiatuba EC: a 12.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.