Where the market is wrong on Buxton v Merthyr Town
Buxton meet Merthyr Town in the National League - North national league north - 6 at The Silverlands, Buxton.
Buxton rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1661 to 1420. Recent form leans Buxton, 70% against 38%. Attacking output favors Buxton on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 78%. Draw no bet leans Buxton at 65%; double chance reads Buxton or draw 75%, Merthyr Town or draw 52%.
Buxton arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Oxford City, L 1-2 v Hebburn Town, L 1-2 @ Bedford Town, D 1-1 @ Southport.
Merthyr Town are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Chorley, D 1-1 @ South Shields, D 2-2 v AFC Telford United, L 1-2 @ Spennymoor Town.
Buxton hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Merthyr Town 1-3 Buxton.
The market prices BUX at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
