Where the market is wrong on Verl v Fortuna Köln
Verl meet Fortuna Köln in the 3. Liga regular season - 3 at Sportclub Arena, Verl.
Fortuna Köln rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1477. Recent form leans Fortuna Köln, 68% against 43%. Attacking output favors Fortuna Köln on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Verl arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 4 scored and 17 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Fortuna Köln, L 0-3 v Hamburger SV, L 2-4 v MSV Duisburg, L 1-4 @ Alemannia Aachen.
Fortuna Köln are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Verl, D 1-1 v Alemannia Aachen, L 0-1 @ SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, W 3-0 v Kickers Offenbach.
The market prices VER at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Fortuna Köln: a 19.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output