Where the market is wrong on Cardiff Draconians v Caerau (Ely)
Cardiff Draconians meet Caerau (Ely) in the FAW Championship south - 9.
Caerau (Ely) rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1568 to 1431. Recent form leans Caerau (Ely), 59% against 38%. Attacking output favors Caerau (Ely) on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.6 per match.
Cardiff Draconians arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Caerau (Ely), W 2-1 v Baglan Dragons, W 4-2 v llanelli AFC, L 1-4 v Pontypridd Town.
Caerau (Ely) are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Cardiff Draconians, W 3-0 v llanelli AFC, W 3-2 v Treowen Stars, L 1-3 @ Baglan Dragons.
Caerau (Ely) hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cardiff Draconians 1-3 Caerau (Ely).
The market prices CAR at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
